2023 Breeders' Cup - All Dirt Pick 4 Analysis
via Frank Scatoni
All-Dirt $0.50 Pick 4 Matrix for Breeders’ Cup Saturday
By Frank R. Scatoni
On Twitter @ScatoniSureShot
INTRO:
There are so many unique opportunities on Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup wagering menu, but you would be remiss to pass up this one: the first-ever $0.50 All-Dirt Pick 4, which offers a low, low, low player friendly 15 percent takeout. It consists of the following stacked events: the Filly & Mare Sprint (R5); the Distaff (R7); the Breeders’ Cup Classic (R9); and the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (R11). I’m excited to tackle this one, so let’s see if we can put the pieces of the puzzle together!
SA BREEDERS’ CUP ALL-DIRT P4 LEG 1 (SA R5):
We kick things off with the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) contested at 7-furlongs on the main track. The defending champ is back. Can she repeat? We shall see!
#1 GOODNIGHT OLIVE (6/5) is such a quality racehorse. She’s never been off the board in her 11 starts, and she is the defending champ of this race after she won last year as the 9/5 favorite. She’ll be favored yet again—but how will the tricky rail draw impact her performance? She’s won from the rail before, but you never know until those gates open. Still, she’s a class act. GRADE: A.
#2 CLEARLY UNHINGED (12/1) is a 3-year-old who just looks too slow on paper, but she definitely has some ability. She has plenty of upside and might show up with a freakish effort, but based on her paper form, she’s in too deep. GRADE: X.
#3 EDA (10/1) was on a seven-race win streak, but she couldn’t make it eight when she faltered as the 3/5 chalk in a Grade 3 last time. I didn’t like her last time because two starts back, I didn’t like the way she finished, even though she won the race. You don’t see too many Baffert runners keeping their form for as long as this gal did this past year, so I have to think she’s trending downward. If she wins, I’ll tip my cap. GRADE: X.
#4 MATAREYA (6/1) has the unique distinction of having beaten Goodnight Olive, so she’s got that in her back pocket—but she had a perfect trip that day while Goodnight Olive had trouble. I don’t like that she has double layoff lines, especially since she ran two subpar races after beating Goodnight Olive. Maybe she can bounce back. Maybe. GRADE: B.
#5 KIRSTENBOSCH (10/1) is a cool gal who just grinds away, so you know she’ll be trying all the way to the wire, but I’m not sure the West Coast contingent, minus Eda when she was on form, is as strong as the shippers. That said, she could easily hit the board with a sustained run. GRADE: C.
#6 MEIKEI YELL (JPN) (15/1) has never raced on dirt, and her recent Japanese form is nothing to write home about. She’s a complete unknown commodity in here. I think she’s probably up against it, but it’s really impossible to know—and how can you knock a gal with seven wins in 17 starts, having earned $2.8 million? GRADE: C.
#7 SOCIETY (5/2) looks solid to me. She has two really nice wins at today’s distance, and even though she had nary a straw in her path, she’s likely to get a similar set-up today, since she has so much early speed in a race that doesn’t figure to have a fast early pace. I think this is her race to lose. GRADE: A.
#8 THREE WITCHES (30/1) looks hopelessly outclassed, but she does love today’s distance, so that’s something you can build a case on. I’m not that much of a man of faith, however, since she just looks way too slow to me. GRADE: X.
#9 YUUGIRI (8/1) has good 6-furlong form against weaker foes—and she does have early speed, so she can make things tricky for Society and Eda, if she wants. Can she win? The last time she tried a Grade 1, she was beaten by 17-lengths. GRADE: X.
SA BREEDERS’ CUP ALL-DIRT LEG 2 (SA R7):
Today’s second leg is a really interesting renewal of the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), a 9-furlong main-track affair for the best ladies in the world. There should be a contentious pace, and we know this track is kind to those forwardly placed types, but what if they cancel each other out? Hmmm.
#1 HOOSIER PHILLY (20/1) will add blinkers to try and shake things up because her form is just no good. Her only win since turning three came in a made-up stakes race at Ellis Park, where she got away with glacial splits on the front end and easily won. How she’s only 20/1 on the line in this field is confounding to me. If this 3-year-old wins, it might be one of the biggest upsets in Breeders’ Cup history. GRADE: X.
#2 A MO REAY (20/1), the first Brad Cox entrant, has a Grade 1 win on her form, but it came in a weak renewal of the Beholder Mile (G1) over this course. Her form since then is just okay, and two things stick out to me: she might not be her best going this long; and Prat bails. GRADE: X.
#3 PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (8/1) is a classy 3-year-old who always shows up for work—but how will she fare against older ladies for the first time? I like that she can track the pace and be in a good position turning for home, but I prefer the older runners in this spot. GRADE: C.
#4 IDIOMATIC (5/2), the first Cox runner, is a win machine. All this gal does is compete. She’s never been off the board in 11 career starts, and I see no reason why she won’t be right there at the wire again today. Note that she has sharp early speed, but she doesn’t need the lead to win. It’s unfortunate that there are some speed horses outside of her, so Geroux will have to be very prudent during the first half of the race. GRADE: A.
#5 ADARE MANOR (4/1) has been a beast since turning four. She’s been favored in every one of her races, and she rewarded her backers in all of those races except her first start off the bench. She will be prominent early, and even though she’s the queen of California, she’ll be facing a class test for the first time, since there are some quality ladies in here. Let’s face it: she hasn’t been facing any world-beaters on this circuit, so let’s see what she’s really made of today. GRADE: B.
#6 SEARCH RESULTS (5/1) always seems to fire, and she’s capable of running some big races, but she hasn’t won a Grade 1 since 2021 when she was a 3-year-old. She’s very usable in your exotics, but 5/1 seems a little short on a gal who always seems to get outfinished at the highest levels. GRADE: C.
#7 WET PAINT (10/1), the second Cox entrant, looks a little too slow on paper, but she’s been off since August, and it’s quite possible this 3-year-old can step forward and run a much faster race, especially since she should be running on late. She’s a bit of a wise-guy play for me, but I like her a lot as an underneath key in the exotics. GRADE: B.
#8 RANDOMIZED (6/1) is a very fast 3-year-old, but it looks like she might need the lead to win, and if she’s in front around the far turn, that means she really had to earn it, because there are some fast ladies in here. I’m not one to discount a Chad Brown runner, but I think this sophomore will be overbet, and I’m expecting someone to collar her in the lane. GRADE: C.
#9 CLAIRIERE (4/1) has the best late kick in the field, so she’s the most likely winner if the big gals up front cancel each other out. Toss her sloppy effort last time, and take her race two back with a grain of salt, since she had trouble. The rest of her form is stellar—and note that she was a head away from winning this race last year. GRADE: A.
#10 DESERT DAWN (20/1) is a hard-trying gal, but she seems in over her head today. Adare Manor has beaten her more times than I can count, and she just looks too slow to be a win candidate. GRADE: X.
#11 LE DA VIDA (CHI) (20/1) is a cool 6-year-old mare who doesn’t project much improvement, so what you see is what you get. Maybe she can clunk up for a piece because she always seems to grind away to the finish line, but a win seems very unlikely to me. GRADE: X.
SA BREEDERS’ CUP ALL-DIRT LEG 3 (SA R9):
Today’s third leg, oddly enough, is the Big One: the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), a 10-furlong main-track affair for the best dirt horses in the world. There are no Flightlines this year, so it’s a pretty competitive race.
#1 ARCANGELO (7/2) has been declared from the race, which is unfortunate because I was really looking forward to seeing what this 3-year-old son of Arrogate would do in here. GRADE: X.
#2 ZANDON (12/1) is a bit of a grinder, so you can expect him to do his thing—but can he grind all the way to a 10-furlong victory? He’s 0-for-2 at this distance with two thirds, so he’s probably better suited to underneath. GRADE: C.
#3 WHITE ABARRIO (4/1) always had ability, but this 4-year-old took his game to a whole new level when he crushed in the Whitney (G1) in just his second start for Rick Dutrow. I was very impressed and immediately stamped him as a Classic (G1) contender after that race. I do think it’s odd that Dutrow decided to train him up to this race, but I trust a guy who has always done things his own way (and with much success). GRADE: A.
#4 MISSED THE CUT (30/1) showed up in a big way last time when winning the Tokyo City (G3) at 12-furlongs, finally showing the ability he exhibited overseas. Obviously, distance won’t be a concern, but is this guy good enough to win this race? I’m doubtful. GRADE: X.
#5 DERMA SOTOGAKE (JPN) (20/1) had terrific form heading into the Kentucky Derby (G1), but the best he could manage was sixth. He didn’t really appreciate being so far back in a big full field, so I would expect his jock to be more aggressive today. And therein lies the rub: can this guy win the Classic (G1) off a May 6 layoff and while facing elders for the first time? I’m skeptical, but he’s really an X-factor in here—and he has his fellow Japanese invader to deal with. GRADE: C.
#6 SAUDI CROWN (12/1) has never finished worse than second, so this 3-year-old clearly has some ability—but he’ll have to earn a victory today with Arabian Knight breathing down his neck every step of the way. This guy has never had anything but perfect trips. Good horses make their own good trips, so I can’t fault him for that, but he’s never been this far, and he’ll have to dig deep if he’s going to try and wire this field. GRADE: C.
#7 CLAPTON (20/1) has earned almost a million bucks, so who am I to question his ability? Clearly, he’s been spotted brilliantly by his connections because he seems a decided cut below Grade 1 material—but he just shows up and picks up checks. Two back, he finished fourth behind a few of these in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), so he’ll need to do better today. Maybe he can grind away for a piece, if you’re a believer. GRADE: X.
#8 USHBA TESORO (JPN) (4/1) has won $9 million dollars—you don’t do that by accident. This guy has incredible international form, and he’s a perfect 6-for-6 at today’s distance, so he’ll have every chance to make all of Japan proud. GRADE: B.
#9 SENOR BUSCADOR (30/1) is in solid form right now, but he is at the mercy of pace and trip, since he likes to come on with a late run. He was flattered by race flows at Del Mar, but last time at Santa Anita, he rallied late for third despite catching a speed-favoring track. He’ll have to prove he’s good enough here, however. GRADE: X.
#10 DREAMLIKE (30/1), the first Pletcher entrant, had pretty uninspiring form until he caught a sloppy/sealed track in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and almost upset the apple cart at 7/1. He won’t get an off track today, and there are some accomplished horses he’ll have to outfinish to get the W. GRADE: X.
#11 BRIGHT FUTURE (10/1), the second Pletcher runner, is a lightly raced 4-year-old who still has some upside, so he’s a little interesting in here. He was game when winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), and Pletcher knows how to get one ready for this big day. I also like that he’s tactical enough to get good position early. GRADE: A.
#12 ARABIAN KNIGHT (3/1) was very impressive when winning the Pacific Classic (G1), but he got the lead and never looked back. He might get the lead again today, but Saudi Crown will make him work to get it—and that could compromise both of their chances late. Also note that the one time this guy didn’t get the lead, he folded like an accordion. He definitely has ability, but I don’t know in what world he deserves to be 3/1 in this race. GRADE: B.
#13 PROXY (12/1) just missed against Bright Future last time, losing by a nose. It was a nice effort, but he had a cushy rail draw last time, while today, he’ll have to work out a trip from this far outside post. He’s really done nothing wrong throughout his career, but he isn’t as flashy as some of the others. Maybe for underneath? GRADE: C.
SA BREEDERS’ CUP ALL-DIRT LEG 4 (SA R11):
We close out this terrific All-Dirt Pick 4 with a fine renewal of the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), a 6-furlong main-track affair for some very fast horses!
#1 NAKATOMI (15/1) likes to track from off the pace, and that might not be the winning style in a sprint that doesn’t have an exorbitant amount of early speed. Maybe he can pick up a slice late. GRADE: X.
#2 DR. SCHIVEL (5/1) was my pick in this race last year, and he lost a heartbreaker. I like him again, especially with that game prep under his belt when he was likely not even fully cranked. GRADE: A.
#3 AMERICAN THEOREM (30/1) is better than he’s shown, but his best form was at Del Mar last year, and he’s still trying to turn back the clock. GRADE: X.
#4 HOIST THE GOLD (12/1) has danced a lot of the big dances, but he hasn’t really shown up with that big breakout race. His prep for this was solid, but he seems a cut below the best in here. GRADE: X.
#5 THREE TECHNIQUE (20/1) is a pretty honest racehorse, but he’s been plying his trade against much weaker animals. He tried the Dirt Mile (G1) last year, and he was pasted. GRADE: X.
#6 THE CHOSEN VRON (5/1) is such a cool Cal-bred: he’s won on turf and on dirt; he’s won sprinting and going long. He was so game in the Bing Crosby (G1) over the summer, but I suspect that Dr. Schivel would have gone by him if that foe didn’t have such a wide journey. GRADE: B.
#7 SPEED BOAT BEACH (3/1) is a very fast 3-year-old who was somehow the product of a bizarre Baffert experiment, when he ran this guy on turf multiple times despite a sensational debut on dirt. I’ll never understand that one—but suffice it to say that this guy’s last race (on dirt) was a corker. He was coming off a long layoff, so he might have been a little short, and his early speed makes him very dangerous. That said, he’ll have to turn the tables on Dr. Schivel, who also figures to move forward. GRADE: B.
#8 ELITE POWER (9/5) won this race last year, and he’s been just as good since then, despite a hiccup in a 7-furlong affair over the summer at Saratoga when Gunite beat him. He could certainly bounce back off a brief freshening, but I can’t take him at 9/5, especially since he likes to track the pace and pounce—and this race doesn’t have all that much speed signed on. GRADE: B.
#9 GUNITE (4/1) has turned into a very nice sprinter, and he has the kind of tactical speed that means his jock can put him anywhere early. To me, that makes him more of a win candidate than his arch rival Elite Power, who seems like an underlay in here. GRADE: A.
