"1/ST" Look at the Pegasus - ITM Players' Newsletter presented by Pegasus World Cup
Plus weekend recap, Eye Catchers, & Derby trail updates!
Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship
Saturday, January 25
Live-Money Handicapping Tournament
Players may compete online with Xpressbet or on-track at Gulfstream or Santa Anita
$25,000 Seeded Prize Pool
$15,000 On-Track Bonus for players competing at Gulfstream Park
$225,000 Estimated Prize Pool
Prizes include NHC Seats, BCBC Seats & Cash
$6,000 Buy-In ($5,000 Bankroll + $1,000 Entry Fee)
Details at PWCBC.com
Players’ Podcast: Weekend Recap/”1/st” Look at the Pegasus
PTF and Nick Tammaro kick off the show with a look back at stakes races from the weekend with a big focus on Santa Anita, as well as Gulfstream and a little Fair Grounds.
Next, they take an initial dive into the Pegasus World Cup through the lens of the current international betting market.
Last but not least, PTF welcomes in Spencer Luginbuhl as he discusses the past, present and future of Redboard Rewind.
Subscribe to ITM Plus for more exclusive picks, written analysis, and shows from your favorite ITM contributors!
2025 Kentucky Derby Top 10 + Other Contenders
How did the Lecomte Stakes affect the Derby picture? Which recent maiden and allowance winners could emerge in prep races over the next month? Answer those questions, and more, with the ITM Derby Contender Tracker!
Recent Beyers, replays, and next likely starts for the top 20 contenders. Plus freshly updated thoughts on over 20 other horses on the Derby trail.
Weekend Eye Catchers - January 18-19, 2025
By Will Humphrey
While some were more obvious than others, the past weekend provided plenty of noteworthy performances in both victory and defeat. Here are a few horses from the weekend who I hope will be profitable to follow going forward.
Saturday, OP R7: I’M MCDREAMY (6th)
On the face of it, a non-threatening sixth place finish from I’M MCDREAMY in Oaklawn’s seventh race on Saturday wouldn’t appear to be overly exciting. However, he did a couple of likable things in this N1X allowance that suggested he’ll be a nice individual worth keeping onside in the future.
Having been bet down into odds of 9/2 by post time, the John Ortiz trained four-year-old son of HARD SPUN broke poorly from gate eleven and found himself dead last, ~10 lengths off the pace heading under the wire for the first time; considering that he went gate to wire when breaking his maiden with an 88 Beyer at Turfway Park last out, that certainly wasn’t where jockey Ramon Vasquez intended for him to be. And so, when straightened away down the back stretch, despite the fact that the leaders were blazing through unsustainable fractions of 22.98, 46.55, Vasquez let the hand brake off and allowed I’M MCDREAMY to roll past horses into a more prominent position. Between the second and third points of call, the pair advanced from 10 lengths off the pace to just 4 1/4 lengths back which, considering that the pace was as contentious as it was up front, was not an insignificant move. With so much forward momentum now underneath him and a wall of horses in front, Vasquez then asked I’M MCDREAMY to try circling the entire field in the five path on the home bend and into the stretch. He received a wiling response form his mount that saw them get to within two lengths of the leaders at the head of the lane but unsurprisingly, having used up so much run and given away so much ground already, I’M MCDREAMY couldn’t threaten for win honors late on. However, with a likable attitude on full display, he stayed on determinedly down the centre to be beaten only 4 1/2 lengths at the wire. HERE’S THE REPLAY (TS: 16:00).
Regardless of the off-the-board finish, I thought that this was a solid effort from John Ortiz’ trainee, especially as he was making just his fourth career start, his first start against winners, and as he was facing a group of far more experienced rivals. After such a poor break, not all horses could have used up so much energy on the backside, given away so much ground on the bend, and still finished as close as he did. This was a sneakily good run and one that, with still just four starts and just two route races behind him, he should be able to build on. Considering he won so impressively on the synthetic last time and that he’s out of a half sister to G1 winning turf router/millionaire STROMY LUCY, he could also step forward for a switch to the turf too.
And so, following this effort, I’d be keeping an eye out for wherever I’M MCDREAMY shows up next - dirt, turf or synthetic - as I expect him to be winning similar contests before long, hopefully at a decent price.
Saturday, GP R11: TOMASELLO (2nd)
Three scratches in the Saturday nightcap at Gulfstream Park - a MSW going 1 1/16 miles on the synthetic - allowed for Mark Casse’s TOMASELLO to draw into the race off the also-eligible list. The $125k son of AUTHENTIC wasn’t able to turn away Brendan Walsh trainee KING OF ASHES, but he showed plenty of promise regardless and looks a nice prospect to follow going forward.
Having drawn in off the AE list, TOMASELLO was burdened with the outside post in gate eleven on Saturday. That didn’t stop the betting public heavily supporting him at the windows (12/1 ML - 9/2), however, it did stop him getting over and into cover when the running began. Following a good break, Javier Castellano could do no better than cross over into the six-path rounding the first bend and, with no horses to settle in behind, TOMASELLO evidently became keen. Keen and six wide - not an ideal situation. Impressively though, despite having pulled hard while pressing honest fractions of 23.86, 47.59 down the back stretch, the colt was still full of run on the home bend which meant that, when Castellano then pressed go entering the lane, he was able to quickly scoot into the lead, looking as if the race was his for the taking. As young, inexperienced horses often do though, especially those who have never been in front before, he then began racing greenly and visibly waited for his rivals’ company in the stretch, drifting in towards the rail and allowing the eventual winner to forge ~3/4 lengths ahead inside the final 1/16 miles. When headed in deep stretch, he then solidified the fact that he was racing greenly and not simply just getting tired by re-breaking and closing back in on the winner to be beaten just a neck at the line. He then went ahead and galloped out strongly, well in front of the field. HERE’S THE STRETCH RUN.
There’s little question in my mind that the best horse in this race finished second. The wide trip, the fact that he wasted energy by pulling so hard in behind a pace that ultimately fell apart down the back stretch, the way in which he hit the front, ran around and then came back at the wire, and the energy with which he galloped out post race, all suggest to me that, while this was a nice performance in defeat, TOMASELLO‘s engine is far greater than his second place finish and 73 Beyer would suggest. Regardless of the result though, this was a solid performance and as this race marked just his third career start and first ever start around two turns, he should be able to build on it both mentally and physically. As he’s a half to G2 winning turf router ENOLA GAY, with a strong European turf pedigree further behind him, he could be better on turf also. Wherever he shows up next though, he’ll be graduating out of the maiden ranks very soon.
Sunday, GP R1: HEREFORAGOODTIME (2nd)
Moving onto Sunday and there were a couple other informative two turn MSW races on the synthetic at Gulfstream Park, none more so than the opener. G1 winner MONGOLIAN GROOM’s little sister SMUDGE came out victorious and looks a nice horse to follow but it was the runner up, HEREFORAGOODTIME, who could be the horse to take out of the race.
A key feature of this race was the pace - fractions of 23.36, 46.42, 1:10.80 were set and there was no hiding place. It ultimately played into the hands of the closers and therefore, having broken quickly under Luis Saez from gate five and been sent forward to closely press the pace in third down the back stretch, HEREFORAGOODTIME did remarkably well to just go down by a neck at the wire. The winner, third and fourth place finishers were positioned sixth, eight and ninth at the second point of call; the two leaders at the second point of call ended up finishing last and second last. HEREFOREAGOODTIME had no right to still be there battling at the wire, especially as it was her first start for 119-days and her first start on synthetic, yet she was. It was a super effort in defeat. HERE’S THE STRETCH RUN.
The race marked a huge improvement from Brendan Walsh’s trainee who, as a two-year-old, had been beaten by a combined 47 lengths in three starts on dirt. I don’t know whether it was the freshly applied blinkers, the first time lasix, the switch from dirt to synthetic, or a combination of all three that brought about this improvement in the $400k daughter of JUSTIFY, but regardless, it was hard not to be impressed by her performance. And as she now has this return off the layoff behind her, you’d hope that she’ll be capable of stepping forward again next time, especially in a softer paced affair. She showed professionalism here, a terrific attitude, she visually made a great impression and quite simply, was beaten by the pace.
With a view to her next out, it’s worth noting at this point that over the last year, in two turn maiden races on the turf/synth, Brendan Walsh has hit at 37% (14-for-38) with runners who hit the board last time out (71% ITM; $2.28 ROI) and following this effort, I’d be hopeful that, possibly via a switch to the turf, HEREFORAGOODTIME will be able to add to those statistics, graduating out of the maiden ranks very soon.
Winners to Mention…
Moving onto some impressive winners from the weekend who should be worth following, let’s start by backtracking to BRILLANTE’s impressive USA debut in the nightcap at Tampa Bay Downs on Friday. Going out for the powerful Chad Brown barn, the daughter of PERSIAN KING was bet like a good thing and won like one too, circling the field from off the pace to win by a very comfortable 4 1/4 lengths. HERE’S THE REPLAY. As is often the case with French imports who join top barns on this side of the Atlantic, there isn’t actually that much about her page, nor her prior form to get excited about: she cost just €25,000 as a yearling, her pedigree is just okay, and she was twice beaten at 30/1+ in both of her starts in France. However, the talent scouts behind operations such as owners Madaket Stables LLC, Michael Dubb et al, are just about the sharpest cookies in the game and following this debut, they look to have craftily sourced another nice individual. BRILLANTE is a filly worth following.
Also on Friday, there was a noteworthy MSW at Turfway Park that saw Brendan Walsh’s first-time starter WONDROUS break her maiden convincingly by 2 1/4 lengths. The 67 Beyer wouldn’t particularly set the world alight, however, she came from well off the pace and finished strongly in a way that suggests she’ll be far better when stretched out beyond Friday’s distance of 6f. Seeing as she’s by UNCLE MO and a half-sister to both G1 winning router MAXFIELD and G3 winning router LOVED, her pedigree would support that theory too. As Walsh’s horses tend to do, she’ll no doubt be able to progress further from this debut performance and with a pedigree such as hers, who’s to say she can’t become another weapon in the Godolphin arsenal?
Saturday at the Fair Grounds saw Kenny McPeek unleash a promising individual in the shape of HYPNUS, who, even by McPeek’s standards, was highly touted by the trainer both pre-race and post-race. McPeek described him as a “beast” and said that connections were confident that he’ll become a stakes horse even before he then went and blew apart a deep MSW with 85 Beyer. HERE’S THE STRETCH RUN. Considering that McPeek wins at just 7% with first time starting 3YO’s going two turns, one would imagine that HYPNUS can take significant further steps forward from this first out and with a pedigree such as his, being by INTO MISCHIEF out of G1 winner DREAM TREE, he could be a name on the KY Derby trail to note.
And lastly, I’ll also throw a mention out to PRETTY SASSY, who was highlighted in these lines last November following her eye-catching fifth place finish on debut. “For all the world, PRETTY SASSY shaped here as if she’s a two turn horse in the making”, was what I wrote about her a few weeks back, and that proved to be exactly the case in the sixth race at the Fair Grounds on Sunday - a 1 1/16 mile MSW - as she drew off impressively to score by no less than 7 1/2 lengths. CHECK THIS OUT. The Beyer figure hasn’t been published at the time of writing but regardless, it was hard not to be visually taken with this performance and as a half sister to 2023 Kentucky Oaks winner PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS, she seemingly has all the required ingredients to be a cut above average. PRETTY SASSY is an exciting name to note and will be worth following in the future.
Out of the Tracker…
ITMEs exiting the tracker this week, to ensure that those with current entires highlighted in both these lines and Saturday’s ‘Horses to Follow’ email are those I still believe to be worth keeping onside/given extra consideration when wagering are…
ONCOURTCOMENTATOR: threatened to be more than just a talented MD-bred early in her career but has failed to deliver on those expectations.
MR SKYLIGHT: looked as if he could become very good when he ran a huge race against a track bias at Pimlico last year but has failed to really press beyond the allowance ranks.
MAKEUP: showed ability with a better than looks defeat off the layoff last year but has not built on that run as expected.
Former ITM Eye-catchers With Current Entries
Recent eye-catchers STIR CRAZY and PRETTY SASSY both scored over the past weekend. Make sure to keep your eyes peeled for these former ITME’s with current entries.
Thursday
OP R9: GOLD LUCK
SA R5: MARIA TALLCHIEF
SA R7: ROYAL CHARTER
Friday
GP R9: BEDAZZLE ‘EM
SA R7: SUPA SPEED
TP R6: EARHART
I hope that you had an enjoyable and successful past week at the windows, and good luck this week!